基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究     

邓世广  周龙泉  马亚伟  臧阳  王月  韩颜颜 《中国地震》2019,35(1):1-13

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。  相似文献   

白洋淀超微真核藻的空间分布特征及关键影响因子     

雷瑾  史小丽  张民  李胜男  陈开宁  杨州 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1559-1569

超微真核藻个体微小、比表面积大,具有高效的碳吸收速率,对水体初级生产力具有重要的贡献.目前对淡水超微真核藻的认知还非常有限.于2017年5月对白洋淀进行采样调查,结合流式细胞术和高通量测序技术探究了白洋淀超微真核藻群落结构的空间分布特征及关键环境影响因子.结果表明,白洋淀超微真核藻的平均丰度为7.59×104cells/ml,且随着营养水平的升高呈现先增加后降低的变化趋势.回归分析表明,超微真核藻丰度在中营养水平水域主要受溶解性总磷和TN/TP影响,在富营养水域主要与盐度有关.测序比对结果表明在纲水平上白洋淀超微真核藻主要以绿藻纲Chlorophyceae、硅藻纲Bacillariophyceae、中心硅藻纲Coscinodiscophyceae、金藻纲Chrysophyceae为主,不同区域差异不大.但在操作分类单元(Operation Taxonomy Units,OTU)水平上,超微真核藻群落结构在白洋淀不同营养状态湖区存在显著差异,中营养水域主要类群为栅列藻科Scenedesmaceae,近囊胞藻属Paraphysomona sp.,定鞭藻纲Haptophyceae和甲藻纲Dinophyceae为主,而富营养水域主要类群为红球藻科Haematococcaceae,金藻纲的Chromulinale sp.和Chrysophycea sp..Bioenv分析表明,对超微真核藻群落组成影响最大的环境因子是溶解性总氮、溶解性总磷、TN/TP、硝态氮、溶解氧.本研究表明超微真核藻的群落结构存在较明显的环境异质性,对白洋淀水体富营养化状态有很好的指示.  相似文献   

Development of Land Resources in Transitional Zones Based on Ecological Security Pattern: A Case Study in China     

Peng  Wenfu  Zhou  Jieming 《Natural Resources Research》2018,28(1):43-60

Land use based on landscape ecological security pattern provides a scientific basis for alleviating conflicts between land conservation and human use, ensuring concomitant economic development and ecological integrity. The majority of studies by Chinese researchers have been focused on the carrying capacity and land development intensity, and less attention has been paid to the ecological security pattern of the landscape in Mianzhu in the transitional zone between the Chengdu Plain region and the Longmen Mountains, western China. However, land resources are undergoing significant changes resulting from land use associated with rapid economic development and demographic growth. In this study, we constructed a minimum cumulative resistance model in Mianzhu in the transitional zone, and the land space was divided into optimized development areas, key development areas, restricted development areas, and prohibited development areas according to the landscape ecological security pattern based on the model surface. These land use types covered 7218.39 ha, 17,974.75 ha, 21,545.39 ha, and 77,791.46 ha, respectively. We also examined land use changes over the last 20 years and quantitatively analyzed the relationships between land use changes and geographic factors based on remote sensing and geographic information system. The information obtained from this research ultimately impacts future policies and plans regarding land resources and can be used to promote the sustainable use of land resources in the region.

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Morphological and sedimentary features of sandy-muddy transitional beaches in estuaries and bays along mesotidal to macrotidal coasts     

Shaohua Zhao  Hongshuai Qi  Feng Cai  Jun Zhu  Xiang Zhou  Gang Lei 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(7):1660-1676

Sandy-muddy transitional beaches (SMT-Beaches), representing the transition from sandy beaches to tidal mudflats, should theoretically develop very different morphological and sedimentological characteristics in river estuaries and in semi-enclosed bays due to their contrasting dynamic sedimentary environments. Evidence, however, is rare in the scientific literature. To reveal these morphological and sedimentary differences, the sand–mud transition (SMT) boundary distribution, beach profiles, and surface and downcore sediment grain-size compositions of 27 SMT-Beaches located along mesotidal to macrotidal coasts of the western Taiwan Strait, southeastern China, were investigated. The results show that typical estuarine SMT-Beaches are mainly characterized by an ambiguous SMT, a long distance between the SMT and the coastline (31–302 m), lower SMT and inflection point altitudes (average –0.76 m and –0.04 m), and lower upper beach gradients (~0.068) with fine sand. Estuarine SMT-Beach sediments display clear interbedded mud and sand layers, implying potential SMT migrations over various timescales. By contrast, typical bay SMT-Beaches are characterized by distinct SMT, a short distance between the SMT and the coastline (11–52 m), higher SMT and inflection point altitudes (~0.24 m and ~0.35 m), and narrower upper beaches with higher gradients (~0.095) and coarse sand. Bay SMT-Beaches present relatively stable sedimentary sequences and a narrow gravel belt surrounding the inflection point and/or SMT. These morphological and sedimentary differences between the two SMT-Beach types are initially constrained by sediment supply and transport and are further affected by tide conditions and wave climate. Sediment supply and transport predominately control the sediment structures, while the tidal range strongly influences spatial variations in SMT distances. Wave climate normally drives SMT altitude variations. This study highlights the morphological and sedimentary differences in SMT-Beaches in estuaries and bays, providing important knowledge for further revealing their morphodynamic processes and potential future nourishment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the relative contributions of the flood tide and the ebb tide to tidal channel network dynamics     

Liang Geng  Zheng Gong  Zeng Zhou  Stefano Lanzoni  Andrea D'Alpaos 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(1):237-250

Flood and ebb currents provide different contributions to the initiation and evolution of tidal channel networks, generating diverse network structures and channel cross-sections. In order to separate the effects of these contributions, a physical model of a sloping tidal-flat basin was set up in the laboratory. Depending on the degree of tidal asymmetry imposed offshore, either flood or ebb currents can be enhanced. The experimental results show that the ebb current has a higher capability to initiate and shape tidal networks than the flood current. Headward erosion is mainly induced by the ebb flow. The slightly inclined flat surface tends to reduce the energy of the flood current and to enhance the ebb current, thus prolonging the duration of morphodynamic activity as well as sediment motion. Overall, flood-dominated tides favour the formation of small-scale channel branches in the upper basin zone, while long lasting ebb-dominated tides result in more complex, wider and deeper tidal networks. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tile‐based polygon overlay of vector data in a virtual globe     

Mengyun Zhou  Lizhe Wang  Xiaoyu Chen  Si Wu  Huawei Li 《Transactions in GIS》2020,24(4):1033-1046

The demand for analysis of large‐scale data has increased with increased access to spatial vector data. Polygon overlay of vector data in a virtual globe requires proprietary data structures and proprietary analysis algorithms. A vector data structure is designed for rapid polygon overlay in a virtual globe by recording the metadata of the triangles (TriMeta) that constitute polygons. A polygon overlay algorithm is proposed based on this data structure. The overlay of two complex GIS polygons is transformed into the intersection computation of their 3D triangular presentations. The intersection computation of two sets of triangles is reduced considerably by utilizing TriMeta to filter out the disjoint triangle pairs and rapidly identify the contained triangle. The new method improves the overlay efficiency in a virtual globe because the amount of computation required to calculate the intersections of two large polygons and drape the intersections onto a terrain surface is reduced.  相似文献   

Stratosphere amplifies the global climate effect of wildfires     

Wei  Ke  Chen  Wen  Xu  Luyang  Zhou  Chunjiang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(2):309-311

The summer of 2019 witnessed a great number of wildfires around the globe.For example,wildfires scorched huge swaths of Alaska,British Columbia in Canada,and parts of Greenland.And forest fires in Siberia and the Far East of Russia were also very serious,affecting nearly 3 million hectares of land,and putting some parts of Russia into a state of emergency.In particular,forest fires in the Amazon region had attracted global attention.According to Science,as of August 24,BraziPs National Institute for Space Research had counted more than 41000 fires this year,86%more than last year,compared with 22000 in the same period last year.Scientists in Brazil and elsewhere believe that the recent increase of wildfires is closely related to the increasing ac・tivities of deforestation(Arruda et al.,2019;Escobar,2019).  相似文献   

虚拟仿真技术在地质学中的应用     

强伟帆  郭艳军  周哲  周勇义 《高校地质学报》2020,26(4):464-471

得益于计算机技术、人工智能技术、多媒体技术、传感器技术等的迅速发展，虚拟仿真在科学领域已经得到了广泛的应用并具有巨大的市场需求。在地质学中，国内外高校已经将虚拟仿真技术应用到教学中，使其打破了传统教学的时空限制。但目前虚拟仿真在该领域的应用还存在场景内容欠缺，交互感不足，细节展示不够等问题。为能够进一步拓展虚拟仿真技术在地质学中的应用思路，文章对虚拟仿真技术在多个科学学科中的应用情况进行研究，介绍了面向地学的综合型、国际化的沉浸式虚拟仿真实验室实例。综合型的地学虚拟仿真实验室的建立，将深度融合地学与虚拟仿真技术，为多学科交叉融合、国际化教学等未来的教学发展方向提供更有效的平台。  相似文献   

Risk assessment through multivariate analysis on the magnitude and occurrence date of daily storm events in the Shenzhen bay area     

Jing-Cheng Han  Yang Zhou  Yuefei Huang  Xiaofeng Wu  Zhe Liu  Yongqiang Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(5):669-689

Multivariate storm frequency modeling would help to gain improved understanding of complex storm process, and provide useful information for regulating flooding risk. In this paper, the dependency...  相似文献   

Ediacaran integrative stratigraphy and timescale of China     

Zhou  Chuanming  Yuan  Xunlai  Xiao  Shuhai  Chen  Zhe  Hua  Hong 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2019,62(1):7-24

Ediacaran successions occur widely in various depositional facies in South China and yield a series of fossil Lagerst?tten, providing a complete fossil record for the evolution of marine ecosystems after the terminal Cryogenian global glaciation. Carbonate-dominated Ediacaran successions in shallow water facies in South China record a nearly complete δ~(13)C profile that may reflect variations of marine carbon isotopic composition during the Ediacaran Period. The Ediacaran fossils andδ~(13)C profiles from South China permit stratigraphic correlation and subdivision of the Ediacaran strata. Based on biostratigraphic, chemostratigraphic, and geochronometric data from the Ediacaran successions in South China, we propose that the Ediacaran System in China can be subdivided into two series, with three stages in each series. The lower series is characterized by acanthomorphic acritarchs and the upper series by Ediacara-type macrofossils, and the two series are separated by the declining limb of a pronounced δ~(13)C negative excursion(EN3) in the upper Doushantuo Formation. The basal boundary of Stage1 is the same as the basal boundary of Ediacaran System, which has been defined at the base of the cap carbonate unit. Stage 2 represents the first radiation of Ediacaran microscopic organisms, with δ~(13)C feature representing by positive values(EP1). The base of the Stage 2 is placed at the first appearance level of a spiny acritarch species. Stage 3 is characterized by the occurrence of more diverse acritarchs and δ~(13)C feature EP2, with its basal boundary defined by a δ~(13)C negative excursion(EN2) occurring in the middle Doushantuo Formation. The basal boundary of Stage 4 is the same as the upper series. Stage 5 is marked by the occurrence of macrfossils of Miaohe biota, and its lower boundary can be placed at the level where δ~(13)C values transition from positive to negative in MNE, or the first appearance level of macrofossils of the Miaohe biota. Stage 6 is characterized by the occurrences of Ediacara-type Shibantan biota and Gaojiashan biota, with its lower boundary defined by the first appearance level of Conotubus hemiannulatus. The formal establishment of the aforementioned series and stages requires further and more detailed integrative stratigraphic study on the Ediacaran successions in China. Some of the Ediacaran successions in South China have great potential to become global standards in Ediacaran subdivision.  相似文献